Remarks From ARJ EXECUTIVE EDITOR
Dr. Larrie D. Ferreiro

U.S. GOVERNMENT USE OF COMMERCIAL CARD TECHNOLOGY: A CASE FOR CHANGE IN MILITARY CARDDISTRIBUTION POLICY
Richard J. Palmer, Mahendra Gupta,and Rodney Dawson

The U.S. Government has used bank commercial card technology since the 1980s to simplify and significantly reduce the cost of the process to acquire low-value goods and services. However, the transition from traditional payment tools to commercial card payment has been slow in recent years. The data presented in this article reflect that change in military practice regarding purchase card distribution is a major contributor to the observed slowdown. Given developments in purchase card technology and the maturation of card spending controls, it may be an appropriate time for the military to revisit its purchase card distribution policies. The ability of the U.S. Government commercial card program to deliver the benefits expected from card use call for this re-examination.

NONSTATIONARY ROOT CAUSES OF COBB’S PARADOX
Lt Col Joseph W. Carl, USAF (Ret.)and Col George Richard Freeman, USAFR (Ret.)

Cobb’s Paradox states, “We know why [programs] fail; we know how to prevent their failure—so why do they still fail?” One possibility is that we do not really know why programs fail and there is no paradox. Another possibility is that some of the problems that lead to program failure may not be susceptible to practical solution, so that continued failure is not paradoxical. This article defines what we mean by nonstationary root causes of program failures, and identifies 10 such causes. Requirements volatility, funding stability, process immaturity, and lack of discipline are often cited among the reasons. The article ends with recommended approaches to mitigate the effects of influences from the environment that change over time—nonstationary effects.

EMBRACING UNCERTAINTY IN DoD ACQUISITION
1SG David E. Frick, USA (Ret.)

Uncertainty is an inherent, unavoidable aspect of life that has a significant impact on program or project management, and acquisition in general. The treatment of risk management within the Department of Defense (DoD) as a formal element of acquisition is a topic discussed extensively in the acquisition profession. DoD fares no better than industry in the number of projects or programs that fail to meet cost, schedule, or performance baselines. This article suggests that, overall, the DoD approach to uncertainty is flawed, and that we need substantive changes to the structure and policies of acquisition to become more effective in the discipline of program management.

ADAPTATION OF PORTER’S FIVE FORCES MODEL TO RISK MANAGEMENT
John F. Rice

Prominent tools for assessing and managing risk include risk cubes, risk burndown charts, and automated risk management software. They are generally lacking, however, in accommodating ideation and brainstorming to identify potential problems. A suggested approach for improving the process is to apply strategic management models currently used as commercial best practices. Many are directly applicable and adaptable to systems engineering processes including risk management. This article presents traditional risk tools and introduces a complementary management model tailored to the identification, scoring, and tracking of potential program threats. Additional management models are presented for further investigation and adaptation.

COST GROWTH:PERCEPTION AND REALITY
Col Mark F. Cancian, USMCR (Ret.)

From the Government Accountability Office to think tanks and politicians, everyone agrees that rising weapons costs are evidence of acquisition system failure. However, in the complaints about cost growth, many basic questions go unanswered: Is cost growth always bad? What is cost growth? How serious is it? Why does it matter? What tools are really effective in combating it? A close examination of these questions reveals many misconceptions. These misconceptions lead acquisition executives to implement an endless cycle of reforms that begin with high hopes, yet prove disappointing in execution. This article analyzes the nature of cost growth, assesses its practical effects, surveys the recent literature, and offers insights about which actions are most effective.

CALL FOR AUTHORS

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